发改委对《经济参考报》几位“专家”预测CPI言论的澄清
2010
06/04
17:36
15850
针对有关观点，记者采访了国家发改委有关部门负责人，该负责人表示，已注意到有关媒体发表的这些观点。高辉清文中对下半年CPI涨幅达到7％的判断是没有事实根据的。按照统计学的基本概念，居民消费价格指数同比涨幅由两部分构成，一是去年涨价的滞后影响，即所谓的“翘尾”因素；二是今年以来的新涨价因素。据测算，去年涨价对今年下半年翘尾的影响约为1.3个百分点，如要达到7％左右的涨幅，新涨价因素应达到5.7个百分点，某些月份的同比涨幅将接近或超过10％。而物价形势十分严峻的2007年、2008年，新涨价因素也不过3.1
来源：
国家发改委网站
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